UPDATE SCORECARD: 2018 Oscar Predictions – The Nominees

It’s Oscar season! It’s the time of year when movie studios watch their proudest works of the year slaughter each other at the box office in hopes of taking home some trophies. While the true fun is in watching these movies, there’s also quite a bit of fun in predicting who gets the edge in getting the gold. It’s not usually a discussion of quality; it’s always who has the biggest and buzziest names that seem to make it in. And there’s the fun in predicting! Pitting celebrities and movies against each other and choosing the candidate with the most hype. Who cares how good Detroit is? Its lack of box office attention saw it fall from theaters and out of the voting booth.

2017 is an insane year. Aside from some crazy genre standouts (comedy, horror, and sci-fi romance in best picture discussions?), there’s nobody leading the pack. There’s no La La Land or Spotlight in sight, which makes it a legitimately interesting year. Even more bizarre is how many movies lasted through the year. Get Out (February), The Big Sick (June) and Dunkirk (July) followed the lead from Mad Max: Fury Road (May 2015) and The Grand Budapest Hotel (March 2014) that a movie released earlier in the year can make it to award season.

Only time will tell if studios will learn from these signs. Could you imagine more movies as bizarre as The Shape of Water? Movies that studios believe to be award-worthy released earlier in the year? 2017 was progress.

These predictions are strictly for nominees of some of the Academy Awards categories. This list will be updated until nominations are announced on Tuesday, Jan. 23. All completely biased and guessed nominees are in alphabetical order.

Last updated: 1/21

UPDATE: 1/23 – Well, the Oscars went terribly for me this morning. One of these was correct and three of them didn’t even have the correct nominee in the “Maybe” section. But, oh well. The corrections have been made and the final grade is below.

LEFT OUT

SHOULD’VE LEFT OUT

Best Picture (7/9)

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Maybe:

All the Money in the World

The Big Sick

Darkest Hour

The Disaster Artist

Molly’s Game

Mudbound

Phantom Thread

Best Director (4/5)

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards

Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk

Jordan Peele – Get Out

Maybe:

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Sean Baker – The Florida Project

Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name

Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World

Steven Spielberg – The Post

Best Actor (4/5)

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name

James Franco – The Disaster Artist

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Maybe:

Tom Hanks – The Post

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress (5/5!!!)

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

Meryl Streep – The Post

Maybe:

Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game

Judi Dench – Victoria & Abdul

Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actor (4/5)

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards

Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards

Maybe:

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water

Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name

Best Supporting Actress (4/5)

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

Hong Chau – Downsizing

Allison Janney – I, Tonya

Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Maybe:

Holly Hunter – The Big Sick

Best Original Screenplay (4/5)

Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards

Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick

Jordan Peele – Get Out

Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water

Maybe:

Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch – The Florida Project

Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick

Steven Rogers – I, Tonya

Liz Hannah and Josh Singer – The Post

Best Adapted Screenplay (4/5)

James Ivory – Call Me By Your Name

Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold, Story by James Mangold – Logan

Brian Selznick – Wonderstruck

Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game

Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber – The Disaster Artist

Dee Rees and Virgil Williams – Mudbound

Best Animated Feature (3/5)

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Maybe:

The LEGO Batman Movie

Total (39/49) – 80%

P.S. Awards are dumb, enjoy these movies!

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